educratsweb logo


Long Range Forecast Update for The 2020 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) here today issued the second stage of Long Range Forecast Update for the 2020 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall. The updated forecast on SW Monsoon was released by Dr. M. Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences and Dr. M. Mohapatra, Director General of IMD at a press conference.  Dr. Rajeevan said that overall, the SW Monsoon will be normal or above normal this year. They also announced the onset of SW Monsoon  over Kerala as the conditions there met all parameters.

Text Box: Highlights 	Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2020 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be NORMAL (96% to 104% of long period average (LPA)).  	Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%.  	Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 107% of LPA over North-West India, 103% of LPA over Central India, 102% of LPA over South Peninsula and 96% of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of ± 8 %. 	The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 103% of its LPA during July and 97% of LPA during August, both with a model error of ± 9 %.   	Currently, ENSO Neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and Neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. Global models are indicating cool ENSO conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with some possibility of development of weak La Niña conditions in the later part of the monsoon season.

  1. Background

 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) had issued the first stage operational long-range forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole on 15th April. Now, IMD has prepared the updated forecast, which is presented here. In addition, forecasts for the monthly rainfall for July & August over the country as a whole, and forecast for the seasonal rainfall for the 4 broad geographical regions of India (NW India, NE India, Central India and South Peninsula) are also presented. The operational forecasts have been prepared based on the state-of-the-art, indigenously developed statistical models.

The update forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was prepared using a 6-parameter Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS).  The seasonal rainfall over the 4 broad geographical regions and monthly rainfall for the July and August over the country as a whole have been prepared using Principal Component Regression (PCR) models with different set of parameters.

Experimental forecast based on the Ministry’s Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) is also presented. The latest version of the high resolution MMCFS implemented at the Office of Climate Research and Services, IMD, Pune was used for this purpose.

  1. Sea Surface Temperature Conditions in the Pacific & Indian Oceans

Currently normal sea surface temperatures are observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.  Many atmospheric variables over the region indicate ENSO Neutral to cool ENSO neutral conditions over the region. The latest forecasts from MMCFS & other global models together indicate cool ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail during most part of the monsoon season. However, a few other climate models indicate possibility of development of weak La Niña conditions in the later part of the season or thereafter.

At present, Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the region. A positive (negative) IOD is associated with a stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. The latest forecasts from global coupled models suggest that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season. 

The prevailing and predicted SST conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are favourable for a normal monsoon season.

 

  1. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)

The latest experimental forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that there is high probability for the 2020 monsoon season (June to September) rainfall to be above normal to excess (More than 104 % of LPA).  Quantitatively, the 2020 monsoon rainfall is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of ±4%.

 

  1. The second Stage Forecasts for the 2020 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

 

  1. Seasonal (June-September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

 

Quantitatively, the 2020 monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. The Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm. 

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Monsoon Season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below.

Category

Rainfall Range

(% of LPA)

Forecast Probability (%)

For 2020 monsoon season

Climatological

Probability (%)

Deficient

< 90

5

16

Below Normal

90 - 96

15

17

Normal

96 -104

41

33

Above Normal

104 -110

25

16

Excess

> 110

14

17

 

            The probability forecasts suggest a very low probability (only 5%) for monsoon rainfall to be deficient. On the other hand, it suggests a very high probability for monsoon rainfall to be normal (41%).

 

  1. Season (June-September) Rainfall over the Broad Geographical Regions

  The 2020 monsoon season (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 107% of LPA over North-West India, 103% of LPA over Central India, 102% of LPA over South Peninsula, and 96% of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of ± 8 %. Thus, monsoon rainfall is expected to be spatially well distributed.

 

  1. Monthly (July & August) Rainfall over the country as a whole

 

The rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103% of its LPA during July and 97% of LPA during August, both with a model error of ± 9 %.

 

educratsweb.com

Posted by: educratsweb.com

I am owner of this website and bharatpages.in . I Love blogging and Enjoy to listening old song. ....
Enjoy this Author Blog/Website visit http://twitter.com/bharatpages

if you have any information regarding Job, Study Material or any other information related to career. you can Post your article on our website. Click here to Register & Share your contents.
For Advertisment or any query email us at educratsweb@gmail.com

RELATED POST
1. Induction Ceremony of Rafale Aircraft into Indian Air Force
The Indian Air Force will formally induct the Rafale aircraft on 10th September 2020 at Air Force Station, Ambala. The aircraft will be part of 17 Squadron, the “Golden Arrows”. The first five Indian Air Force Rafale aircraft arrived at Air Force Station, Ambala from France on 27th July 2020. Hon’ble Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh and Mrs Florence Parly Minister of the Armed Forces of France will be the Chief Guest for the event. Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat, C
2. How to Update Garmin GPS? Toll Free No : +1 844-687-1001
Garmin GPS is the device in which you have to connect with your car for traveling from one place to another place. Before the GPS device every person using their smartphones to go to the destination place. But after get the knowledge about the importance of GPS. And then we get the Garmin GPS, you have to just connect with your car. But if the GPS device needs to update it, then you have to follow these steps. Step1: Whenever you get that you need to upgrade the GPS device. You
3. Steps to Revive Aviation Industry amid Covid-19 Pandemic
All efforts have been made to reduce the impact of the pandemic on the aviation sector. Some of the measures taken to support the aviation sector include inter-alia:        1.    Due to COVID-19 pandemic, domestic air services have been restarted in a calibrated manner. Initially only one third (33%) of the summer schedule 2020 was allowed to be operated which was subsequently increased to 45% on 26 Jun 2020 and then to 60% on 02 Sep 2020.
4. Extension of date of implementation of Toys (Quality Control) Order, 2020
The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt. of India today issued notification, extending the date of implementation of Toys (Quality Control) Order, 2020 as 1.1.2021 in place of 1.9.2020. This decision allows domestic manufacturers four months of extra time to make necessary arrangements for compliance of standards in view of difficulties arising out of COVID-19 pandemic. Sources https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.as
5. Centre Likely to Announce Unlock 5 Guidelines Today: What to Expect in Next Phase of Unlocking?
Unlock 5 Guidelines: With the Unlock 4 coming to an end, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is likely to announce guidelines for Unlock 5 today with new relaxations for the next phase of the lockdown. In its earlier announcement, the MHA had allowed Metro trains to resume services across the country. To further revive the economy, the Centre is expected to ease more restrictions in the coming days and activities would slowly be allowed in areas outside the conta
6. Single Window System
The Central Government is working on setting up a Single Window System for clearances and approvals of industry in the country. Despite the presence of several IT platforms for investing in India such as in departments of the Government of India and State Single Window Clearances, investors need to visit multiple platforms to gather information and obtain clearances from different stakeholders. To address this, the creation of a centralized Investment Clearance Cell which would provide e
7. New information on atmospheric turbulence parameters of Himalaya region can help weather prediction
Weather predictions becoming more certainand help in preventing air traffic disasters may now be easier and, especially in the Himalaya region. Thanks to certain atmospheric turbulence parameters specific to the Himalaya region that scientists have calculated. Scientists at the Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences (ARIES), an autonomous institute under the Department of Science & Technology (DST), Govt. of India, have estimated turbulence parameters in th
8. Extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places also very likely over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka on 11th September, 2020
According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre/Regional Meteorological Centre, New Delhi of the India Meteorological Department (IMD):   Significant Weather Features (September 09, 2020):   ♦ An off-shore trough at mean sea level runs from south Maharashtra coast to north Kerala coast. The east-west shear zone runs roughly along 13°N across the peninsular India at 3.1 km above mean sea level and a cyclonic circulation lies
9. Water supply schemes under Jal Jeevan Mission inaugurated on the Indo-Myanmar border in Manipur
Chief Minister of Manipur Shri N Biren Singh inaugurated two water supply projects for two villages under Jal Jeevan Mission. The two villages on the Indo Myanmar border are remote and once totally insurgent infested, now getting regular water supply under Jal Jeevan Mission. Khangbarol village of Khengjoy sub division, Chandel, an aspirational district in Manipur is situated 69 km away fr
10. Kerala University undergraduate admission 2020: First list for UG programmes to be out soon; all details here
The university has provided all the relevant and necessary information on its official website. After the first allotment list, the university is likely to release the second allotment list on August 24. Kerala University UG allotment results are likely to be released very soon as the admission period for undergraduate programs ended yesterday. The university may release the first allo
11. Guidelines for Conduct of General Election/Bye election during COVID-19
Election Commission of India approved the broad guidelines for conduct of general/bye elections during COVID-19 period. These are available at
12. Isolated extremely heavy falls also very likely over Odisha on 25 & 26 and over Chhattisgarh on 27 August, 2020
According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre/Regional Meteorological Centre, New Delhi of the India Meteorological Department (IMD): Significant Weather Features Dated on 25-08-2020 (MID-DAY) ♦️ The Low Pressure Area over North Bay of Bengal &neighbourhood now lies as a Well Marked Low Pressure Area over the same region. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards during next 4-5 days. Under its influence: Wid
13. Syngene reports second quarter revenue from operations at Rs. 519 Cr, up 12% year on year
Syngene reports second quarter revenue from operations at Rs. 519 Cr, up 12% year on year Mumbai, October 21, 2020: Syngene International Limited today announced its second quarter results. The Company posted quarterly total revenue of Rs. 533 Cr compared to Rs 485 Cr in the corresponding quarter of last year. EBITDA for the quarter was up 6% to Rs. 169 Cr while PAT was up 2% to Rs. 84 Cr. Commenting on the results,
14. India scales another peak: Total recoveries cross 2 million
Fast on the heels of crossing 3 crore cumulative tests, India has recorded another high. Total number of recoveries has crossed 2 million today (20,37,870). Coupled with this is another achievement of highest ever single day recoveries of 60,091 in the last 24 hours. With this high number of COVID-19 patients recovering and being discharged from the hospitals and home isolation (in case of mild and moderate cases), the Recovery Rate has scaled the twin peak of
15. The approach of the Government has led to Minorities being equal partners with other communities, in the educational & socio-economic development of the country—Shri Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi
The Government is working with commitment to ensure Development with Dignity, Empowerment without Discrimination, which has ensured prosperity in life of weaker and other needy sections of the society including Minorities. This approach of the Government  has led to Minorities being equal partners with other communities, in the educational & socio-economic development of the country. No such report received in the Ministry to suggest that certain groups are making organised efforts to spread dis
16. Steps taken by Government to support tribal communities during Covid pandemic
Ministry of Tribal Affairs (MoTA) has constituted a team of officers to prepare the roadmap and take necessary measures for implementation/realization of initiatives to restore growth in the economy after the Covid-19 Pandemic. On request of MoTA, the Ministry of Home Affairs has vide Order No. 40-3/2020-DM-I(A) dated 16/04/20 issued guidelines aiming to relax the provisions of lockdown for Collection, harvesting and processing of Minor Forest Produce(MFP)/ Non Timber Forest Produce (NTFP) by STs and oth
17. Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi to inaugurate the Atal Tunnel
Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi shall inaugurate Atal Tunnel, Rohtang at 10 AM on 3rd October 2020. Atal Tunnel is the longest highway tunnel in the World. The 9.02 Km long tunnel connects Manali to Lahaul-Spiti valley throughout the year. Earlier the valley was cut off for about 6 months each year owing to heavy snowfall. The Tunnel is built with ultra-modern specifications in the Pir Panjal range of Himalayas at an altitude of 3000 Mtrs (10,000 Feet) from the Mean Sea Level (MSL).
18. Summary of Flood Situation as per Rainfall Forecast
Based on the rainfall forecast, following advisories are issued by CWC for various States - Odisha, Andhra Pradesh &Telangana Heavy to very heavy with isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Telangana, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during next 24 hours. Due to ongoing extremely heavy rainfall, River Godavari is also getting good flows due to rain in Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Telangana. Polavaram project on River Godavari in Andhra Pradesh is likely to get a
19. Shri Radha Mohan Singh Distributes Electric Chaak to 150 Kumhar Families in Bihar under KVIC Kumhar Sashaktikaran Yojana
In a major step towards creating sustainable self-employment, Khadi and Village Industries Commission (KVIC) today distributed electric potter wheels (chaak) to 150 potter families in East Champaran district in Bihar. Member of Parliament and former Union Agriculture Minister, Shri Radha Mohan Singh distributed electric chaak and other equipment like blunger machines and pug mills to the potters in presence of KVIC Chairman Shri Vinai Kumar Saxena. The beneficiaries who were given electric chaak after co
20. Mphasis and R3 Partner to Develop a Blockchain-Based Payments and Financing Network for Global Supply Chains
21. Applications invited for the National Highway Excellence Awards 2019
Applications invited for the National Highway Excellence Awards 2019Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has invited proposals for the National Highways Excellence Awards for the year 2020. The awards are given every year in seven categories – Excellence in Project Management, Excellence in Operation and Maintenance, Green Highway, Innov
22. Arunachal Pradesh will provide tap water to all rural homes by 2023
Arunachal Pradesh has again received a very high rainfall in the current monsoon season. Many of the drinking water supply installations dependent on the surface sources have faced the fury of natural calamities in terms of flash flood, cloud bursts, landslides and erosions. The Ledum multi village water supply project feeding potable drinking water to Bilat circle, Oyan-Sille Circle and Ruksin headquarter covering 19 villages with population of 21,287 under East Siang D
23. ISRO is fast enlarging its role in developmental activities: Dr. Jitendra Singh
Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) Development of North Eastern Region (DoNER), MoS PMO, Personnel, Public Grievances, Pensions, Atomic Energy and Space, Dr Jitendra Singh said here today that one of the major highlights of the Modi government has been that in the last six years, Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) i
24. Record highest single day recoveries of 56,110 registered
The record highest single day recoveries at 56,110 registered in the last 24 hours are the result of the successful implementation of effective containment strategy, aggressive and comprehensive testing coupled with standardized clinical management of the critical patients based on holistic Standard of Care approach. The coordinated efforts of the Centre and State/UT governments have resulted in continuously increasing average daily recoveries. In the first week of July the daily average recove
25. DGCA Undertakes Special Safety Audit of all Scheduled Airlines in India
The DGCA is carrying out special safety audit of all the scheduled airlines in the country. For the Airports, spot inspections at 13 licensed airports have been carried out during the monsoon season by the DGCA. Regulatory audit of scheduled airlines is carried out every two years as per the Manual of Regulatory Audit. However based on the findings during surveillances, spot checks, complaints, voluntary report and severity of occurrence, risk based audits are carried out in the form of special
26 Educational talent search program, ALLEN academics young talent search program for students | TALLENTEX 2021 #Scholorship 12 Days Remaining for Apply
Educational talent search program, ALLEN academics young talent search program for students | TALLENTEX 2021For student Studying in class 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th & 10th Stage-1 : Online | Stage-2 : Offline / CBT ...
We would love to hear your thoughts, concerns or problems with anything so we can improve our website educratsweb.com ! visit https://forms.gle/jDz4fFqXuvSfQmUC9 and submit your valuable feedback.
Save this page as PDF | Recommend to your Friends

http://educratsweb(dot)com http://educratsweb.com/content.php?id=2482 http://educratsweb.com educratsweb.com educratsweb