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Posted By educratsweb.comBusiness 👁 155 (10 Jul 2020)

Working for India of 2024 - An Open Letter to PM

Most Respected Honourable Prime Minister,

Sweeping victory for BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections!! Many many congratulations to all Indians living here and abroad!!

We Indians are congratulating ourselves for our electoral victory in 2019 parliamentary elections. More than BJP, we consider it as our personal victory.  We are overwhelmed with a sense of pure joy and happiness. We have been witness to this historic victory as stake holders. For millions of us, this auspicious day will stay in our memory as a daydream till our last breath. And you are the architect-in-chief for making this dream come true. We are utterly grateful to you for allowing us the pleasure of witnessing this historic day.

I know I will be branded as Modi Bhakt by our left leaning liberal friends and intelligentsia, who are well educated from elite institutions but use their education and intellect to pander to forces inimical to our national interest, culture and pride. As an average Indian I no longer care. On the contrary I will take this epithet of Modi Bhakt as a Badge of Honour, because then I will see myself as an ardent follower of the greatest nationalist, unifier, visionary, nation-builder and statesman of independent India. I know millions of Indians will echo these very sentiments.

However, the purpose of this open letter is not what has been summarized thus far. Intention is to bring to attent

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US Equity Markets on Roll - How Long Before A Thud?

Keep your ears to the ground. This meteoric rise of US equity markets is unsustainable. It is bound to fall like a ton of bricks. Reason - the rise has been without proper foundation. It is as if some deep pocketed cartel has decided to off load its portfolio in equities and switch to some other market . To start doing that, the prices have been jacked up so that more investors join the band wagon, believing that bull market is intact, alive and kicking. That is far from the truth.

To understand what is happening in market, you will have to refer back to my last Sunday blog post here What's in Store for US Markets in 2019 ?
In the wee hours of last Monday, I had scripted a chart  for Nifty for the complete year 2019  in my last blog post. Idea was to test my understanding of the behavior of Indian equity market going forward. By doing so we will be able to gauge whether this understanding stands the test of time. At any juncture if we find Nifty deviating from the charted course, it will serve as an alarm bell and we can then carry out mid course correction.

So far in this week Nifty has done exactly as scripted. I had opined that Nifty will be range bound between 10500 and 11000. You can revisit my last blog post here Indian Equity Market View For Year 2019

Nifty index is the bellwether for Indian stock markets. Tracking Nifty will essentially give us insight into expected behavior of Indian equities. It is the beginning of year and hence is good time to track Nifty.

Nifty is presently in sideways move, displaying very low volatility. It is expected to remain within the range of 10500 to 11000 for the next couple of months. That is primarily due to the upcoming General Elections and market participants are in no mood to fully commit themselves either way.

What Happens After March

After March things will crystallize to a large extent as to whether present incumbent NDA has the upper hand in the upcoming elections or not. Let us analyze the two outcomes :-

  1.  NDA Has Upper Hand : In that case you will see Nifty drift down to 10300


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What's in Store for US Markets in 2019 ?

Last week Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed just shy of 24000. This gave Dow an impressive 2.6% gain from the start of the year 2019.

What next


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Trump's Era - Why Is He Not Your President?

First we witnessed widespread and sometimes violent protests saying  "Trump is not my President". Then there were protests to allow "Illegal Immigration" to carry on unchecked in US. Close on its heel came protests against "Travel Ban" from seven countries to US.

Then Michael Flynn had to resign from post of National Security Adviser due to leak that he had spoken to a Russian diplomat, Sergey Kislyak.

Now pressure is being applied for resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions for having spoken to the same Russian diplomat.

Phew! that's quite some action for Trump-bashers to orchestrate in such a short span of time. But you already have inside information on Illegal Immigration and Travel Ban through my post

What is this hullabaloo about US official talking to Russian counterpart? What on earth is wrong in engaging with Russia? Is Russia an enemy state which is trying to wage war with US? Has  Russia made any attempt to invade US through conventional or proxy war? If not, then how is Russia perceived to be an enemy state for US wherein Russians are considered anathemas?

Let us analyze in detail the questions that have arisen here. But before that let's draw your attention to my last blog-post which analyzed the controversial decision of President Trump on Illegal Immigration and Travel Ban . You may like to dig out facts here in Trump's Era - Acts to Save Democracy For Future Generations

Russian Untouchability  

President Trump has rightfully declared that he wants to establish cordial relations


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Trump's Era - Acts to Save Democracy For Future Generations

Trump policies and beliefs are being criticized and condemned through the length and breadth of US and the world. Protests continue till date and seems to be increasing by the day. Before you get swayed by the protests, ask yourself the following questions:
  1. Why should anyone object to plans to stop illegal immigration from southern borders of US?
  2. Why create furore over travel ban on seven countries, viz Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen & Somalia?

Illegal Immigration 
Anything illegal should be immediately stopped. That is the Rule of Law- bedrock of any democracy. If President Trump is trying to stop illegal immigration, why should there be such massive resistance from US citizens? Are you in favor of illegal activities?Here President Trump is brave enough to risk his


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Dow Reaches Milestone 20000

It was tantalizing moment when Dow Jones touched historic milestone of 20000 on Friday 06 Jan 2017. It was  a moment to celebrate, specially for me. Way back in Oct 2014 I had predicted this milestone in Dow while commenting  in a MarketWatch column. Dow was then at 16400 level.

My comment had elicited a response from a reader and I decided to start this blog to track Dow's journey to projected 20000. To get the drift, check out my first blog post Dance of Dow. 

You can also access the above referred MarketWatch column here. My comments can be viewed in the Comments section

Out of my four predictions on movement of Dow, three have so far come true. My fourth and last prediction is the most


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Bored of Being Unemployed - For Traders Only, Investors Keep Out

As of this moment Dow is trading  at 17716, down114 points. Traders be ready to jump into trade as discussed below.

What we are going to discuss today is for traders' eyes only. Investors please do not try this risky strategy that I am going to discuss today. One has to be nimble footed and there is no room for fat fingers.

I will be giving Dow levels to trade. Scrips which are co-related with Dow movement can also be traded, keeping given Dow levels in view. I hope I am clear. If yes, let's trade ;-

Condition # 1

  • If Dow falls down to 17400/17450, then buy.
  • Sell your position when Dow bounces back to 17850/17900
  • To square off this trade should not take more than a week.
  • If this trade materializes then you stand to gain 400/500 Dow points in quick time.
Condition # 2
  • If Dow does not breach to


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Japan Unsettles Global Markets - Havoc Spreads

Bank of Japan announced it's monetary policy today -  that announcement brought tsunami in local and global markets. What did Bank of Japan(BoJ) do to unsettle global markets so much that bulls had no place to hide? Long trades were decimated in all markets from Asia to Europe to America.

In Japanese markets there was bloodbath with Nikkie225  losing 624 points, down 3.6%. So what did Bank of Japan do in it's policy announcement that horrified the investor community and made them dump everything in sight? Bank of Japan took following monetary policy decisions:-
  1. BoJ kept its Deposit Rate unchanged at -0.1%.
  2. BoJ maintained it's Asset Purchase target at 80 trillion Yen (USD 738 billion as of current conversion rate). 
  3. It gave some relief to quake hit areas by offering zero interest rate loans to those areas.
Result of BoJ Inaction: 
After the announcement by BoJ, Yen roared into super-drive and st


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Beginning of End of Oil Age - Saudi Vision 2030

Saudi Arabia got its importance and wealth from US oil crisis in 1970s.

U.S. response to the energy crisis was to establish deeper relations with Saudi Arabia. Deeper relations boiled down to two main points of agreement:-
  • Saudi Arabia will have to sell its oil in US dollars only. It's implication is that any country wanting to buy Saudi oil will first have to buy US dollars to pay for oil purchased from Saudi Arabia. Thus began dominance of Petro-Dollars in world economy.
  • In return Saudi Arabia got military protection from US.
Importance of Saudi oil started to change from 2009, when US oil production increased year on year. Increase in US oil production carried on unabated and Saudi influence declined proportionately.

To add insult to injury, more factors surfaced on the horizon for Saudis' discomfort :-
  • New


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Dow In Negative Territory - Are You Scared US Markets Will Crash?

US markets have risen too much too fast. From mid Feb 2016 to date (in about two and half months) Dow has gained 2700 points (approx).This was achieved without any significant correction.

That has given credence to market speculation that US markets may collapse any time. Are you stressed by such announcements?

Let me categorically state that US markets are not going to collapse any time soon. Dow may drop down to 17200 in a worst case scenario. In such market condition, Dow will find support at 17200 and rise.

Reason why I am saying so is simple. There is long term support at 17200 level in Dow. However, Bank of Japan and US Fed will have to spring some nasty surprises this week for Dow to touch 17200.

In the absence of any shock from Fed/BoJ, Dow will go into sideways movement in coming days. 

Is this a Bull-Trap?
Earth Day was celebrated world wide on 22 April- a day to reflect on environmental issues of our planet. On Earth Day let us spare a thought for our environment - not for any lofty abstract charitable symbolism but for our own survival on this planet.

We must debunk the myth that any step to protect environment, will save our planet. It will save us.

When we tackle environmental issues with positive action, we are saving ourselves, and not the planet. This planet will survive any environmental catastrophe, but humans will not.

So let us do ourselves a favor - protect our environment. In this process we will save our species from extinction. Earth has and will survive many such catastrophe.

Fossil Fuel

This Earth Day let us resolve to phase out fossil fuel from our environment.

We the people of planet earth, have to set urgent realistic deadlines and act firmly to throw out fossil fuel

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Out of Work But Thankfully Out of Danger - US Markets Dive

We went out of business when Dow reached 17900 last Friday. I had asked my audience to exit US markets with Dow between 17990/17950. Dig out details here.

I not only asked my audience to exit markets, I also told them to stay on the sidelines. That makes us unemployed - watching the battle from gallery. Probe yourself. If you are short of time to probe, examine the operative paragraphs :-

"The best case scenario is that the sell off in equity markets takes place in slow motion. Big players may choose to exit their positions in a classical "Distribution Process" so that they can obtain reasonable price for their huge lon


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Chinese Invade IMF - Yuan Set to Become Reserve Currency

At peak of last global financial crisis of Sub Prime fame, Chinese leadership publicly criticized  international monetary system. China chided that a  international monetary system solely dependent on US Dollar for stability, will be prone to disaster. From there started Chinese quest to invade international monetary system.

China went about being the good guy and convinced IMF executive board that Yuan meets standard of "freely usable" currency. It also observed all IMF compliance rules to get approval for entry into SDR (Special Drawing Rights) basket.

Countries can us

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Hear Bulls Roar - Dow Positioned to Break New Ground?

Bears running for cover! And there is none.

From  Asia, Europe right up to America, there is no place for bears to hide. Everywhere bulls are in full control. Markets are in all shades of green, but green all the same.

Oil is up by 0.5% - and surprisingly enough Gold is also up. Bulls are running amok and have inadvertently stepped into gold bastion. But once there by default, they are piling up bullion. Someone please explain more rationally!!

Yesterday Dow recovered form day low of 17848 and closed at 18004, after making a high of 18010. This means that Dow swung a neat 62 points from day low to reach its high. All this was done in gloomy and uncertain situation of oil plunge. Very creditable!

Feeling Left Out of the Celebrations?

Today  Dow has opened in green at 18014 and is at present up by 37 points. But we are out of work, isn't it? That is becaus


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Dare Saudis to Execute Threat to Ramp Up Oil Production !

Saudi Prince threatened last Thursday that if Production Freeze at Doha Summit was not agreed to, then they could ramp up oil production by extra 1 million barrels per day. Now that there was no deal at Doha on Sunday, we dare them to ramp up production as announced. We dare them to shoot themselves in the foot. We dare them to carry out their puerile threat. We, the people of planet earth, dare them !!

We are tired of Saudi shenanigans. They are at this mischief for so long that it is not funny any more. As many aver, even with trillions of  petro-dollars Saudis have not done one single act of goodness for mankind. In fact its the other way around!

For investors in oil, there is no reason to panic. This fall was expected which I had announced on Saturday itself. If your are visiting this space for the first time then I recommend you to read following posts before proceeding further :-
Will they, will they not? That is the moot question that investors, especially oil traders are asking around the globe. And 'They' are the major oil producing countries. These countries will go into a huddle to decide whether they should announce a production freeze on crude output so as to restrain the supply of global oil or not. With supply side contained, these oil producing nations expect oil prices to  increase.

In Doha Summit there will be 12 OPEC nations participating, with Libya abstaining. Iran will attend but will  send a delegate instead of its Oil Minister.. Others attending are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Angola, Algeria, Equador, Indonesia, Qatar, KSA, Venezuela

Seven non-OPEC countries have been invited. Out of these seven, Russia, Bahrain and Oman are sure to attend. Mexico will send its observer. It is not clear whether invitees Azerbaijan, Norway and Kazhakstan will attend or not.

That this Summit is bound to fail has already been dis #[...]

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How will this Sunday be - Black or Grey?

Yesterday my call-to-action in US markets was for booking profit at 17900/17950 in Dow. Check it out here. That call was given before the markets opened. Dow opened at 17925, reached a high of 17938 and finally closed at 17987, down by 29 points from last closing.

Trade in US markets was testimony to the confusion that prevails in trading community. Tug-of -war of sorts between bulls and bears, if you may! This situation of uncertainty is mainly due to a divided house on how Doha Meet on Oil Production Freeze will pan out coming Sunday.

Frankly speaking I have no hopes from Doha Meet of major oil producing countries. This aspect I had covered in my last post Bears Sharpening Daggers - US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip

How can you expect consensus from

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Bears Sharpening Daggers - US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip

There are grave dangers for bulls in US markets. I had cursorily mentioned about a clutch of them in my earlier post What will topple markets - Crude, China or Cameron?

This post is a call to action before opening bell for all those who are long in US markets as per my recommendation. It is serious and urgent situation and I shall give detailed reasons in succeeding paragraphs.

Bears are gleefully whetting their hatchets and tomahawks, waiting for markets to open. So the wise thing to do would be to square off all long positions between 17900/17950 in Dow.

I agree that you would feel cheated if Dow was to surge northwards, but it is better to take profits off the table. Remember we had built long positions as per my advice at 17400 in Dow. If you take profit at 17900 you still would have accrued 500 points in Dow.

Massive resistance in Dow Jones exits at it's long term selling zone of 18000/18200. No need to take ext #[...]

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Thrilling Race To 18000 in Dow - Will We Witness It Today?

US markets gave a captivating performance in last trading session. Dow rose from a day low of 17742 to a day high of 17918, finally settling down to close at 17908. That is as bullish as you can lay your fingers at!

There were a couple of compelling reasons for such a fascinating journey northwards in US equities. Most compelling reason for this bullish lift off was JP Morgan coming out with good results. While the street was expecting poor show from financial institutions, out came results of JP Morgan sweetly surprising market participants.  Bears were caught unawares and got painfully caught in a bear trap.

Well that seems almost history now. Dow Jones has marched majestically towards its psychological level of 18000. Now the most important question is - will Dow achieve 18000 in trade today? I think it will, although Dow should open flat. As of publishing this post, European markets are marginally up and Dow Futures is also slightly up. Oil after being #[...]

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What will Topple Markets - Crude, China or Cameron?

Global markets across Asia and Europe are in supreme bullish fever. Everywhere there is welcome green, and that too of deep hue. Dow Futures is 89 points up. But crude is down. which may prove to be a spoiler in trade today.

Judging from situation US markets should open with a gap up. After all it has to reach 18000 destination. Check it out in this blog post.

In this wonderful bull run starting mid Feb 2016, there has to come a time for meaningful correction. Traders will take some excuse or the other to book substantial profit.

Will that excuse be provided by Crude or China or even Cameron? We will intensively investigate and analyse that in my next blog post. So keep lookout for in-depth analysis of impending correction in US markets in this space.


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Enjoy the Journey - Dow Is Squarely on Way to 18000

US markets ended last trading session with a strong close, with Dow closing 165 points higher.

Those who have been acting on my buying advice given in this blog, must be enjoying the ride in US markets.

Right from 17400 level in Dow, I have been pleading with my readers  to buy US markets since I could see that Dow Jones was headed to 18000. That is 600 Dow points on offer, which means that even if you had chosen the wrong scrip to buy, you would still be in  profit, albeit small.

I have continuously main

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Worried About Earnings Season In US? - Banks Expected to be Culprits

If US markets fall in this earnings season, Banks will be leading the fall.
Banks are potential under-performers and this earnings season they could be the biggest drag to US stocks..

For economy to do well, its banking sector has to be at least on even keel, if not racing on full throttle. But with ultra low interest rate causing ripple effects on banks' balance sheets, results of banks can be anything but ugly. Dovish stance of Fed on future rate hikes as also sharp decline in oil prices have not helped..

So be ready to get jolted this earnings season by dismal results of US banks. Other positive corporate earnings may act as countervailing effect to banks' earnings for US stock market to absorb the shock.

However, today Dow should remain positive since oil is up along with gold. It seems investors are slowly tucking away proceeds to gold as a safe haven, just in case the stock market tumbles. That can only explain gold price rising with the stock market. And yes, Do #[...]

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